Introduction _The people in Asia who live downstream from the rivers originating from Tibet and China, over 1.6 billion of them, must face all the economic, agricultural,fishery, and environmental challenges that have been taking place gradually in the basins over the last decades. In the meantime, China reaps all the benefits derived from the hundreds of hydroelectric dams it builtupstream whose reservoirs contain billions of metric cubesof water and retain 90% of the alluvia resulting in a total change in the current flow of the basins. But the country’s ambition does not stop there. The Chinese government is building a megaproject named Red Flag River, 6,180 km long, in order to divert 60 billion cubic meters of water from the source preventing it from flowing into to the Mekong, Salween and Brahmaputra Rivers. China’s Red Flag River Project poses an imminent threat to humanity. This country refrains from signing any international riverine cooperation treaties in order to preserve a free handin the implementation of projects that serve its interests.No other super powers in the world show such arrogance in the exploitation of their water resources with total disregard to the livelihood of millions of inhabitants living downstream from their rivers. Việt Ecology Foundation
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The more powerful riparian nation may also be able to use various political, economic, and military tools to govern relations with the less powerful neighboring nations. This can result in a major power imbalance in favor of the dominant nation, which controls the access to and quantity of water resources over smaller, weaker nations.
If the Red Flag River is built, how would the downstream region’s access to water be affected? Could China use it to “turn off the tap” to reduce or halt entirely the water flow from the transnational rivers to the downstream countries?
In an extreme case, China could impose forceful water diplomacy against the other riparian nations, holding 25% of the world’s population hostage by using water as a coercive weapon to reduce or halt entirely the water flow from these transboundary rivers to the many downstream countries. [1]
ANATOMY OF THE BIG RIVERS IN ASIA
The big rivers, the lifelines, of the Asian continent all start from the Tibetan Plateau also known as the Third Pole of the Earth.
_ Eastern Tibet: two big rivers start in the east and flow entirely within Chinese territory: (1) the Yangtze River, 6,500 km, the longest in Asia, runs in an easterly direction across the width of the country all the way to Shanghai, (2) the Yellow River flows to the north then turns east to Tianjin. Both of them end in the China Sea.
_Western Tibet: Northwest, (3) Indus and (4) Sutlej Rivers flow in a southwest direction then run into three other rivers to form the Punjab Delta in between India and Pakistan. Southwest (5) Yarlung Tsangpo is “the world highest river”, with its rapids and waterfalls dotting the Himalayas. Running through India, Bhutan, and Bangladesh, the river takes on the new name Brahmaputra River before it ends up in the Gulf of Bengal, Indian Ocean.
_ Southern Tibet: in the south the three rivers (6) Irrawaddy and (7) Salween flow to Myanmar in a north-south axis before they reach the Andaman Sea. For its part, (8) the Mekong River meanders through several countries under different names: from Tibet: known as Dza-Chu meaning “river of rocks”, it flows south through the deep canyons in Yunnan with the new Chinese name Lan Thương Giang / Lancang Jiang “turbulent river”, crosses the Thai-Lao border and is renamed Mae Nam Khong “mother river”, enters Cambodia and is known as Tonle Thom “great river”. Lastly, as it crosses into Vietnam it is called Cửu Long “the nine dragons”, splits into two main tributaries Tiền and Hậu Rivers then dumps into the East Sea through the original nine estuaries which are now reduced to seven. [Picture 1]
IF TIBET DRIES – ASIA DIES
It is quite apparent that, at any price, China is determined to occupy Tibet – this extremely important strategic plateau abundant in water source and rich in natural resources – this is sadly the “biological destiny” of the small country of Tibet of less than 1.5 million people (1965 census, population of ethnic Tibetan 1,321,500; Leo A. Orleans, The China Quarterly Jul-Sep, 1966). The Tibetans are being Sinicized and reduced to being a minority in their own land.
One has to witness the fast pace of destruction of Tibet’s biotope, right at its source, that includes: the great rivers in Asia being exploited extensively by China by means of the hydroelectric dams, in tandem with ongoing suicidal deforestation as well as the large-scale exploitation of mines entailing the pollution of water sources. Climate change caused by the discharge from fossil-fueled factories and the resulting greenhouse effects lead to the rapid melting of the receding ice and snow.
This is to show that the primeval rivers of Asia during the previous century are now undergoing some transformation as they are being degraded.
That state of affairs has led the Dalai Lama now living in exile to issue a call to action. In his eyes, the preservation of the environment should take precedence over the political issues of the day. During a meeting with the American Ambassador Timothy Roemer in New Delhi, the capital of India in August of 2009, the Dalai Lama stated:
“Political agenda should be sidelined for 5 to 10 years and the international community should shift its focus to climate change on the Tibetan plateau. Melting glaciers, deforestation and increasingly polluted water from mining projects were problems that ‘cannot wait’.” [source: Wikileaks Cables, the Guardian 10 Aug. 2009]
The Dalai Lama is not only the spiritual leader of the Tibetan people. He is also a voice of “compassion” relentlessly speaking out in defence of human rights and the environment of this planet.
In regard to Tibet, the Dalai Lama prefers to give higher priority to the preservation of the environment instead of the hot political issues.
Beijing confirmed that it will build other large hydroelectric dams upstream of theYarlung Tsangpo River – Brahmaputra, before the latter crosses into India, Bhutan and Bangladesh. The Brahmaputra River is the lifeline of those three nations.
Once those projects are completed, the total capacity of the hydropower dams on the Tibetan Plateau will far exceed that of the Three Gorges Dam: 22,500 megawatts, the world largest dam built on the Yangtze River.
Even though he is fully committed to and concerned about the survival of his country, the Dalai Lama also shows he cares deeply about the issues besetting humanity. He approached environmental issues with a long-range view within a global context and always desires to keep this planet “green". In his address to World Environment Day [06.05.1986] he stated:
“Peace and the survival of life on earth as we know it are threatened by human activities which lack a commitment to humanitarian values. Destruction of nature andnatural resources results from ignorance, greed and lack of respect for the earth's living things...It is not difficult to forgive destruction in the past, which resulted from ignorance. Today, however, we have access to more information, and it is essential that we re-examine ethically what we have inherited, what we are responsible for, and what we will pass on to coming generations.” [2]
RED FLAG RIVER 红旗河
BEIJING’S DINOSAUR
Over the past several decades, it became a known fact that China has built and is building hundreds of hydroelectric dams all over its rivers with giant reservoirs that retain the flow of alluvia thus affecting the entire ecosystem and impacting the livelihood of millions of people living downstream.
Today, going one step further,China is contemplating a very reckless megaproject: the digging of an artificial river,the Red Flag River 红旗河 that will be the largest transbasin river connecting the existing network of natural rivers in the Asian continent. The ultimate objective is to redirect their watersource northward thus assuring the food security for China. The 6,180 km longRed Flag River will provide China with an additional 60 billion cubic meters of water – indicating that the other countries will have to forego an equivalent volume of crucial watersource.
China is proceeding with the project without consulting the neighbouring countries. Thus, it can be concluded that with its population of 1.4 billion, China has started an ecological war that will wreck disasters on its 1.6 billion neighbors who live with them on the Asian continent.
The Red Flag River is expected to redirect annually an estimated 60 billion cubic meters of water – equivalent to 21% of the volume of water at the source of the three transnational rivers: Mekong, Salween and Brahmaputra. This precious water source represents the lifeline, livelihood of the inhabitants of South Asia as well as Southeast Asia who have to traditionally rely on this traditional water source that will be redirected to Xinjiang in the northwest of China.
The transbasin Red Flag River Project will undoubtedly create shock waves in the public opinion of the neighboring countries – especially in India with its large population second only to China’s.
The nations downstream will certainly raise their deep concerns in the face of such unpredictable prospects. The water that flows down from Tibet comes from the rain and melting snow during the warm weather. The water level and current flow reach its peak during the months of February through July equivalent to 70% of the annual water supply. This is the optimal time for the Red Flag River to make use of the potential and kinetic energy to redirect the current flows and capture the largest volume of water possible. On the other hand, this time is also the dry season in the countries downstream. As a result, after the Red Flag River becomes operational, droughts in this region will certainly turn more unforgiving. Those countries will find themselves at the mercy of China, a fate the Tibetans, Uyghurs, Vietnamese know too well.
For this reason, China’s Red Flag River embodies an imminent threat to or a crime against humanity. China has refused to join any international cooperation agreement in order to retain a free hand in the realization of its national ambitions. No superpower in the world has shown such disregard to the livelihood of the millions of people living downstream in the exploitation of its rivers.
What about Vietnam? As always, an “age-old” silence even though the Red Flag River threatens to divert the water of the Mekong right at its source.
“Great” China, in many senses, reflects the notion of the “Great Han” spirit reminiscent of a glorious past with the iconic “Great Wall”, one of the seven wonders of the old world. Nowadays, thanks to scientific and technological progress, China envisions the implementation of new world class projects: the world’s largest Three Gorges hydroelectric dam on the Yangtze River, and now the Red Flag River, the world largest man- made river bearing the highest price tag in the world. This is a megaproject that will transform the geological features of the continent of Asia. China has at its disposal a large labor force, a strong determination and high technology needed for this Red Flag River project. However, at what price to the neighboring countries is none of China’s concern.
Picture 3a: The Red Flag River and the macro project to redirect the water “Sanzhong- Siheng”; (a) the thin black lines: the major rivers; (b) the bold black lines:the Red Flag River and its two main tributaries connecting to thenatural rivers in the project to redirect their waterto the north and south basins in China; (c) thetruncated bold black short bands: the north-south aqueductsin the SNWTP / South-North Water Transfer Project; (d) the truncated bold black long bands: projected for implementation. [source: The map by Genevieve Donnellon-May and Mark Wang in The Diplomat Oct. 7, 2021.] [1]
Picture 3b:Professor Wang Hao, Chairman of the Expert Group on the Dialogue for the “Red Flag River Issue” – a megaproject of China – has made this statement: “at least on the millennium scale, thebenefits of the Hongki River Project [Red Flag River Project] far outweigh the disadvantages.”
THE GENESIS OF THE RED FLAG RIVER AND “ Sanzhong - Siheng”
This project was the result of a study done by “the research group S4679” at the Tsinghua University in Beijing – regarded as the Harvard of the East; under the direction of Professor Wang Hao the engineer-in-chief of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research.
The Red Flag River consists of an irrigation network using the gravity flow water diversion system to divert water from the rivers originating in the Tibet Plateau known as the “the roof of the world” with an average height of 4,500 m above sea level, through a main channel into the arid regions in Xinjiang – it has the potential of “turning Xinjiang into a lush and prosperous “California Made in China”. The project will, at the same time, redirect a gigantic volume of water from the tributary Chunfeng into the Turpan Basin in the north of Xinjiang. [Picture 3a,b]
The Red Flag River hydro project will channel water into Xinjiang and the provinces in the northwest like Gansu, Ningxia. The water will transform the region into the number one producer of agricultural products in the country. It is estimated that those provinces in the northwest will receive a quantity of water greater than the annual current flow of the Yellow River. This project is expected to add 13.3 million hectares of arable land to Xinjiang as well as 130,000 km2 of verdant oases to the northwest of China.
Besides the above-mentioned agricultural benefits, the Red Flag River will also ensure water security for China. The (SNWTP) South-North Water Transfer Project, endows China with a water grid system called “Sanzhong - Siheng 三纵四横”:
Sanzhong: refers to the 3 channels that convey water from the south to the north: 2 of them, in the east and center, were completed and the one in the west is being activated. Once fully operational, it will redirect 17 billion cubic meters of water from upstream the Yangtze to the Yellow River right at the Tibet Plateau. There is a high chance this will help revive the Yellow River that is drying up.
Siheng: refers to the 4 rivers that run from west to east: Yellow River, Huai River, Yangtze River, and Haihe River.
This “Sanzhong - Siheng” system will ensure a stable source of water for the capital Beijing and the large provinces in the plains north of China.
Furthermore, the Red Flag River includes a two-river network: the Hongyan River that carries the water to Yan’an in the north of Shaanxi, and the Mobei River to Inner Mongolia and Beijing. Also, through the Mobei River, the Red Flag River supplies water to the delta north of China while the Sichuan Basin receives its water from the Hongyan River. [Picture 3a,b]
This is a hydro project of an extremely large scale –not only in regard to the creation of a system to supply water to the northwest region of China but also to link the country’s existing network of watersource in order to establish, strategically, a “double guarantee” for a stable source of water to Beijing and the north of China. [1]
STILL IN DEFENCE OF CHINA
Undoubtedly, it would not be surprising to see people with doctoral degrees or academics inside and outside of the country [Vietnam] who volunteer to act as defence lawyers for Beijing: Don’t blame everything on the Chinese. They still insist on the simplistic argument that only 16% of the current flow of the Mekong comes down from China. Now, even if the Red Flag River reduces that number by a few percentages, China cannot be held responsible for the droughts.
In fact, during the dry season when the water crisis reaches its peak, the water of the Mekong River that flows down from China amounts to 40% and 70%, two to four times the number they cited above. [source: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/china-eyes-its-next-prize-mekong]
And people can still be lulled by the argument: the upstream – downstream” conflict is just normal. It even exists among regions within the same country.
Do they need to be reminded that in 2016, former Prime Minister Nguyễn Tấn Dũng of Vietnam had to call on China to discharge the water from the Jinhong Dam in order to save the Mekong Delta from the severe drought that took place then? The response from China unfortunately proved “too little, too late”
THE RED FLAG RIVER AND THE HEART OF THE TONLE SAP LAKE AND THE MEKONG DELTA
Though the Red Flag River Project S4678 has not been officially proclaimed, it will inevitably raise serious concerns.
On November 18, 2019, the Chinese PM “Li Keqiang presided over a work conference on the follow-up project of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. The Prime Minister emphasized that the current expansion of effective investment should focus on the construction of water conservancy projects and supporting facilities, which will help enhance disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities, and will also create more jobs for migrant workers.
The Prime Minister pointed out that promoting the construction of the follow-up project of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and further opening up the channel of water diversion from the Yangtze River Basin to the north will help improve the ability of my country's water resources to support economic and social development. increase employment…In addition, the Prime Minister gave instructions on people's livelihood issues in the construction of major water conservancy projects such as the follow-up project of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. He made it clear that if the resettlement needs to be relocated during the project, the mechanism should be improved, and the relevant work should be done well, so that the resettlers can move out, be stable and get rich.” (Reporter Zhang Ruoting) http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2019-11/19/content_5453541.htm
Picture 5: On November 18, 2019, “PM Li Keqiang presided over a work conference on the follow-up the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2019-11/19/content_5453541.htm ]
The Tibetan Plateau known as a rich ecosystem is at the same time very fragile and vulnerable.
The Red Flag River will undoubtedly reduce the water source that feeds the transnational rivers – the Mekong River included.
Clearly, China will find in the Red Flag River a “super weapon” that it can exercise to attain hydro-hegemony over the entire Asian continent. With it, the country can control the “on and off faucet” at will – especially in the case Beijing wishes to “teach a lesson” to the small countries – to borrow Deng Xiaoping’s parlance.
Except for India, a big country in the same league as China, apparently no other countries have officially made any pronouncements on this issue. – As for the Vietnam National Mekong Committee – 23 Hàng Tre Street in Hanoi, 1,600 km away from the Mekong River, it keeps its usual silence pointing to a policy of total passivity.
Faithful to its modus operandi, so far, China has not shown any desire to share information or willingness to consult with the countries downstream about the Red Flag River Project S4679 whose long lasting devastating impacts on the transnational rivers of the region are unquestioned.
In the opinion of the two authors Genevieve Donnellon-May / National University of Singapore and Mark Wang / University of Melbourne, Beijing possesses the ability to use the “water weapon” as a diplomatic tool to hold 25% of the world’s population hostage. Unlike the reservoirs of the hydroelectric dams that hold and discharge water, the Red Flag River Project aims essentially at redirecting the water flow – meaning that 100% of the water source will be kept by China never to be shared with the countries downstream. [1]
The more powerful riparian nation may also be able to use various political, economic, and military tools to govern relations with the less powerful neighboring nations. This can result in a major power imbalance in favor of the dominant nation, which controls the access to and quantity of water resources over smaller, weaker nations.
If the Red Flag River is built, how would the downstream region’s access to water be affected? Could China use it to “turn off the tap” to reduce or halt entirely the water flow from the transnational rivers to the downstream countries?
In an extreme case, China could impose forceful water diplomacy against the other riparian nations, holding 25% of the world’s population hostage by using water as a coercive weapon to reduce or halt entirely the water flow from these transboundary rivers to the many countries downstream.
_ The condition of “thirst for flood/ đói lũ” in the Mekong Delta has been occuring more frequently in recent years. Flood – during the high-water season, the quantity of water that flows down to the Mekong Delta depends mainly on the amount of rain that falls upstream the Mekong River. When rain is sparse in the upper basin, the lack of water in the hundreds of reservoirs of the hydroelectric dams will cause it to be retained instead of being allowed to flow downstream. Consequently, the Mekong River will suffer from water scarcity followed by droughts in the entire network of rivers and canals.
_ Therefore, it’d be extremely ill advised to argue that the 16% of the water derived from the current flow coming down from China is negligible or that the dam reservoirs do not use up the water source. In addition, when a penury of water occurs in the dam reservoirs, it would take a long time to replenish them. The reservoirs in the hydroelectric dams have wreaked havoc on the natural evolutionary cycle of the Mekong River. Without water of the high flood season or the peak rainy season, the Tonle Sap River will not be able to reverse course and flow into the Tonle Sap Lake expanding its surface five-fold (from 2,700 km2 during the dry season to 16,000 km2 in the rainy season). The Tonle Sap Lake is viewed as a giant natural reservoir of fresh water that feeds into the Tonle Sap Delta in Cambodia and the Mekong Delta in Vietnam during both the rainy and dry seasons.
_ A river ecosystem does not consist only of water but requires a combination of biotic elements (plants, algae, seaweeds, microorganisms along with other abiotic ones (sand, pebbles, alluvia). They all interact with each other forming a living body.
The nefarious impacts of the series of hydroelectric dams – together with the Red Flag River clear the way for the monopolization of the water source and the destruction of the rivers’ ecosystems. The Mekong Delta is now experiencing a “alluvia craving” because the alluvia – the very element that has played a role in the accretion and formation of the deltas throughout the past thousands of years – are being retained in the dams’ reservoirs. As a result, we are witnessing a “reverse process” in the Delta: in lieu of accretion, we have a “land erosion” phenomenon that causes landslides not limited to the riverbanks but expanding to the 800 km long coastal areas.
Furthermore, one must also take into consideration the phenomenon of land subsidence resulting from over-exploitation of groundwater and other factors like “climate change,” global warming, rising sea level, and the effects of El Niño or La Niña that have impacted the deltas (including the Mekong Delta), the most vulnerable regions. All of these have upset hydrological climate predictions thus hampering the ability to take preventive measures!
CHINA AND ITS UNCHANGING THUGGISH BEHAVIOR
In February of 1972, on his visit to Beijing, President Nixon shook hands with Mao Zedong and helped China open up to the free world. In the aftermath, Deng Xiaoping introduced his “Reform and Opening Up” policy that saw a rapid development in China propelling it to the status of a super power, more exactly “hegemonic power”. In 1979, Deng Xiaoping himself launched a bloody military border conflict with Vietnam to “teach a lesson” to its neighbor in 1979.
Sticking to its consistent policy, Beijing has displayed a thuggish behavior from the East Sea (Paracel and Spratly archipelagos and the Nine-dash line), to the inland by occupying the water sources, constantly threatening and bullying the “smaller, weaker nations”, in total disregard for international law and order.
Just recently, in October of 2021 China brazenly refused to sign a “water sharing treaty” with the countries downstream. [1]
Nothing prevents the Chinese experts in hydrology from sharing information or carrying out an honest dialogue with their foreign counterparts. But it’s not done. Only insensitivity instead. No dialogues, no consultations concerning all the major projects that affect the whole region. Beijing is fully aware that such a behavior would entail tense relations but it chooses not to mind. Today’s China only speaks the language of strength. The struggle for survival may lead to a war for water in this 21st century.
NGÔ THẾ VINH
Mekong Delta 1995 – 2022
GUEST AUTHOR:
Ngô Thế Vinh, a physician residing in Southern California; is the author of The Nine Dragons Drained Dry, The East Sea in Turmoil, and most recently of Mekong The Occluding River. In those two books he discusses his deep concerns about the impacts of the Chinese Lancang-Mekong dams on the Lower Mekong Basin,the Tonle Sap Lake, the Mekong River and Tonle Sap River Deltas. His current field of interest includes: the environmental aspects of the Mekong River and its developmental implications.
REFERENCES
- What’s Behind China’s Latest Mega Hydro-Engineering Project. Genevieve Donnellon-May, Mark Wang. The Diplomat Oct 07, 2021.
https://thediplomat.com/2021/10/whats-behind-chinas-latest-mega-hydro-engineering-project/Red Flag River and China Downstream Neighbors. Genevieve Donnellon-May, Mark Wang. The Diplomat Oct 23, 2021.
https://thediplomat.com/2021/10/red-flag-river-and-chinas-downstream-neighbors/ - Tibetan Springtime and The Tale of The Major Rivers in Asia. Ngô Thế Vinh, Viet Ecology Foundation Jan 20, 2017
http://vietecology.org/article/article/198 - The Tonle Sap Lake with Low Perfusion The Mekong Delta with an Excruciating Chest Pain. Ngô Thế Vinh, Việt Ecology Foundation Dec 18, 2015 http://vietecology.org/article/article/126
- Đồng Bằng Sông Cửu Long và Những Bước Phát Triển Tự Hủy Hoại. Ngô Thế Vinh. Việt Ecology Foundation May 01, 2018 http://vietecology.org/article/article/299
